Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 18

Hellas Verona–Torino

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'TorinoGiovanni Simeone
87'TorinoC. Casadei (assist: Alieu Njie)
90'TorinoAlieu Njie (assist: Ardian Ismajli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		Torino
7	Shots	21
3	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
397	Passes	444
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 1.15 · Torino 1.14. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Hellas Verona 7 · Torino 21; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

Antonio Rapuano, Italy→

4.38

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.1%: “Hellas Verona to win”. Second comes “Torino to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Hellas Verona, 1.04 for Torino.
The highest double chance value is 68.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,314 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win36.1%

Draw31.5%

Torino to win32.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hellas Verona lead at half-time27.8%

Level at half-time44.4%

Torino lead at half-time27.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level72.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Torino ahead72.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1314 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 13Actual: 13
Torino: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 4Actual: 4
Torino: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score1.15

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Torino score1.14

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–012.1%0–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.