Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 18

Atalanta–AS Roma

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'AtalantaGiorgio Scalvini (assist: Nicola Zalewski)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atalanta		AS Roma
13	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
384	Passes	462
296	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atalanta 1.36 · AS Roma 1.07. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Atalanta 13 · AS Roma 10; on target 2 and 4.
AS Roma kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Michael Fabbri, Italy→

4.00

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Atalanta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Atalanta, 1.06 for AS Roma.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (1X — Atalanta win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,311 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atalanta to win42.3%

Draw29.3%

AS Roma to win28.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Atalanta lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time45.6%

AS Roma lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Atalanta ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.4%

X2 — level or AS Roma ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1311 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atalanta: at least 11Actual: 16
AS Roma: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Atalanta: at least 4Actual: 7
AS Roma: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atalanta score1.36

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AS Roma score1.07

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.3%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.