Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 18

Sassuolo–Parma

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'SassuoloKristian Thorstvedt (assist: S. Walukiewicz)
24'ParmaMateo Pellegrino

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sassuolo		Parma
11	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
503	Passes	448
446	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sassuolo 1.33 · Parma 1.07. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sassuolo 11 · Parma 16; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

Ermanno Feliciani, Italy→

3.89

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Sassuolo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Sassuolo, 1.01 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Sassuolo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,308 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sassuolo to win47.8%

Draw27.9%

Parma to win24.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sassuolo lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time48.4%

Parma lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sassuolo ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time51.6%

X2 — level or Parma ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1308 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sassuolo: at least 12Actual: 12
Parma: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Sassuolo: at least 4Actual: 4
Parma: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sassuolo score1.33

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score1.07

Attack: Parma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–011.4%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.