Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 18

Como–Udinese

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'ComoLucas Da Cunha (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Como		Udinese
15	Shots	3
3	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
566	Passes	346
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Como 1.58 · Udinese 0.86. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Como 15 · Udinese 3; on target 3 and 0.
Como kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Como, 0.88 for Udinese.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (1X — Como win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,307 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Como to win54.3%

Draw26.5%

Udinese to win19.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Como lead at half-time40.8%

Level at half-time45.0%

Udinese lead at half-time14.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Como ahead or level85.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Udinese ahead59.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1307 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Como: at least 11Actual: 12
Udinese: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Como: at least 4Actual: 3
Udinese: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Como score1.58

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Udinese score0.86

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Como's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–012.6%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.