Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 17

Cremonese–Napoli

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'NapoliRasmus Højlund
45'NapoliRasmus Højlund (assist: S. McTominay)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cremonese		Napoli
6	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	10
3	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
409	Passes	463
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cremonese 0.91 · Napoli 1.46. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Cremonese 6 · Napoli 22; on target 2 and 8.

Referee

Maurizio Mariani, Italy→

4.14

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.5%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.72 for Cremonese, 1.72 for Napoli.
The highest double chance value is 86.1% (X2 — draw or Napoli win).
These values were computed from 1,302 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cremonese to win13.9%

Draw24.6%

Napoli to win61.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Cremonese lead at half-time15.7%

Level at half-time46.7%

Napoli lead at half-time37.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cremonese ahead or level62.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Napoli ahead84.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1302 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cremonese: at least 12Actual: 13
Napoli: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Cremonese: at least 3Actual: 1
Napoli: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cremonese score0.91

Attack: Cremonese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napoli score1.46

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Cremonese's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.4%0–213.3%1–112.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.