Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 17

AC Milan–Hellas Verona

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 December 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'AC MilanChristian Pulišić (assist: Adrien Rabiot)
48'AC MilanC. Nkunku (penalty)
53'AC MilanC. Nkunku

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Hellas Verona
11	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
426	Passes	393
359	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.83 · Hellas Verona 0.79. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots AC Milan 11 · Hellas Verona 9; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

Michael Fabbri, Italy→

4.43

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.8%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for AC Milan, 0.67 for Hellas Verona.
The highest double chance value is 90.1% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,301 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win69.8%

Draw20.2%

Hellas Verona to win9.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AC Milan lead at half-time51.1%

Level at half-time39.0%

Hellas Verona lead at half-time9.9%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level90.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Hellas Verona ahead48.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1301 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 8Actual: 5
Hellas Verona: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

AC Milan: at least 5Actual: 7
Hellas Verona: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.83

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hellas Verona score0.79

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.4%1–013.0%1–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.