Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 17

Parma–Fiorentina

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 December 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'ParmaO. Sørensen (assist: Mateo Pellegrino)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Parma		Fiorentina
13	Shots	23
2	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
326	Passes	452
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Parma 1.16 · Fiorentina 1.39. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Parma 13 · Fiorentina 23; on target 2 and 4.
Fiorentina kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Marco Guida, Italy→

4.71

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Parma, 1.48 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (X2 — draw or Fiorentina win).
These values were computed from 1,296 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Parma to win26.2%

Draw27.9%

Fiorentina to win45.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Parma lead at half-time23.6%

Level at half-time46.2%

Fiorentina lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Parma ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Fiorentina ahead76.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1296 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Parma: at least 12Actual: 10
Fiorentina: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Parma: at least 3Actual: 5
Fiorentina: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Parma score1.16

Attack: Parma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.39

Attack: Fiorentina score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–110.6%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.