Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 16

Cagliari–Pisa

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'PisaM. Tramoni (penalty)
59'CagliariM. Folorunsho (assist: G. Zappa)
71'CagliariS. Kilicsoy (assist: G. Gaetano)
89'PisaS. Moreo (assist: M. Leris)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cagliari		Pisa
14	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	14
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
401	Passes	264
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cagliari 1.26 · Pisa 1.11. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Cagliari 14 · Pisa 15; on target 5 and 3.
Cagliari kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Francesco Fourneau, Italy→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “Cagliari to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Cagliari, 0.89 for Pisa.
The highest double chance value is 77.4% (1X — Cagliari win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,292 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cagliari to win48.3%

Draw29.2%

Pisa to win22.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Cagliari lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time47.4%

Pisa lead at half-time21.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Cagliari ahead or level78.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Pisa ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1292 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cagliari: at least 13Actual: 15
Pisa: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

Cagliari: at least 5Actual: 2
Pisa: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cagliari score1.26

Attack: Cagliari score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pisa's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pisa score1.11

Attack: Pisa score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cagliari's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–013.6%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.