Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 16

Lazio–Cremonese

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+4'CremoneseF. Ceccherini · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lazio		Cremonese
8	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	0
0	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
554	Passes	412
478	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lazio 1.56 · Cremonese 0.93. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Lazio 8 · Cremonese 9; on target 2 and 2.
Lazio kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Luca Pairetto, Italy→

5.38

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.4%: “Lazio to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for Lazio, 0.77 for Cremonese.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (1X — Lazio win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,290 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lazio to win62.4%

Draw23.6%

Cremonese to win14.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	21

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lazio win or draw86.0%

12 — any result other than a draw76.4%

X2 — draw or Cremonese win37.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lazio lead at half-time39.1%

Level at half-time45.8%

Cremonese lead at half-time15.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Lazio ahead or level84.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Cremonese ahead60.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1290 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lazio: at least 11Actual: 13
Cremonese: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

Lazio: at least 6
Cremonese: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lazio score1.56

Attack: Lazio score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cremonese score0.93

Attack: Cremonese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lazio's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.1%2–012.8%1–112.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1290 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 53 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.