Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 15

AS Roma–Como

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 15 December 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'AS RomaWesley (assist: Matías Soulé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Como
14	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
396	Passes	358
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.26 · Como 1.05. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AS Roma 14 · Como 13; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

Ermanno Feliciani, Italy→

3.43

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for AS Roma, 1.01 for Como.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win43.9%

Draw29.4%

Como to win26.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AS Roma lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time48.6%

Como lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time51.4%

X2 — level or Como ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 12Actual: 16
Como: at least 14Actual: 8

Corners

AS Roma: at least 4Actual: 6
Como: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.26

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Como's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Como score1.05

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–011.9%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.