Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 15

Genoa–Inter

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'InterYann Bisseck (assist: Lautaro Martínez)
38'InterLautaro Martínez
68'GenoaVitinha (assist: Aarón Martín)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genoa		Inter
5	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	9
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
286	Passes	532
217	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genoa 0.92 · Inter 1.72. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Genoa 5 · Inter 18; on target 3 and 8.
Inter kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Daniele Doveri, Italy→

4.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.0%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.72 for Genoa, 1.86 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (X2 — draw or Inter win).
These values were computed from 1,287 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genoa to win12.4%

Draw22.7%

Inter to win65.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Genoa lead at half-time14.4%

Level at half-time43.0%

Inter lead at half-time42.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Genoa ahead or level57.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Inter ahead85.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1287 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Genoa: at least 11Actual: 10
Inter: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

Genoa: at least 3Actual: 1
Inter: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genoa score0.92

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Inter score1.72

Attack: Inter score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.6%0–113.5%1–111.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.