Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 15

Udinese–Napoli

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bluenergy Stadium, Udine

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

73'UdineseJürgen Ekkelenkamp (assist: Keinan Davis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Udinese		Napoli
18	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
322	Passes	518
245	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Udinese 0.87 · Napoli 1.54. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Udinese 18 · Napoli 7; on target 5 and 0.
Napoli kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Simone Sozza, Italy→

4.44

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.86 for Udinese, 1.46 for Napoli.
The highest double chance value is 79.3% (X2 — draw or Napoli win).
These values were computed from 1,285 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Udinese to win20.7%

Draw28.3%

Napoli to win51.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Udinese lead at half-time15.4%

Level at half-time44.5%

Napoli lead at half-time40.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Udinese ahead or level59.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Napoli ahead84.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1285 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Udinese: at least 13Actual: 16
Napoli: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Udinese: at least 4Actual: 1
Napoli: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Udinese score0.87

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napoli score1.54

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–113.7%0–210.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.