Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 15

AC Milan–Sassuolo

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'SassuoloI. Kone (assist: A. Pinamonti)
34'AC MilanDavide Bartesaghi (assist: Ruben Loftus-Cheek)
47'AC MilanDavide Bartesaghi (assist: C. Nkunku)
77'SassuoloArmand Laurienté (assist: A. Pinamonti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Sassuolo
13	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
537	Passes	377
476	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.89 · Sassuolo 0.86. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots AC Milan 13 · Sassuolo 8; on target 5 and 3.
AC Milan kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Valerio Crezzini, Italy→

3.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.6%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for AC Milan, 0.78 for Sassuolo.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,284 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win64.6%

Draw22.4%

Sassuolo to win13.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

AC Milan lead at half-time44.8%

Level at half-time41.8%

Sassuolo lead at half-time13.5%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level86.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Sassuolo ahead55.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1284 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 10Actual: 12
Sassuolo: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

AC Milan: at least 4Actual: 7
Sassuolo: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.89

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sassuolo score0.86

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.8%1–012.3%1–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.