Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 15

Torino–Cremonese

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'TorinoNikola Vlašić (assist: Duván Zapata)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Torino		Cremonese
18	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
398	Passes	454
314	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Torino 1.30 · Cremonese 1.20. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Torino 18 · Cremonese 10; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

Livio Marinelli, Italy→

5.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “Torino to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Torino, 1.06 for Cremonese.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (1X — Torino win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,281 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Torino to win48.3%

Draw27.2%

Cremonese to win24.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Torino win or draw75.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Cremonese win51.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Torino lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time45.4%

Cremonese lead at half-time30.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Torino ahead or level69.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Cremonese ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1281 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Torino: at least 12Actual: 20
Cremonese: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Torino: at least 5Actual: 6
Cremonese: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Torino score1.30

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cremonese score1.20

Attack: Cremonese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–010.5%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1281 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 52 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.