Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 14

Cremonese–Lecce

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'CremoneseF. Bonazzoli (penalty)
78'CremoneseA. Sanabria (assist: Alessio Zerbin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cremonese		Lecce
11	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
339	Passes	350
250	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cremonese 1.40 · Lecce 0.96. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Cremonese 11 · Lecce 9; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

Giuseppe Mucera, Italy→

3.17

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “Cremonese to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Cremonese, 1.05 for Lecce.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (1X — Cremonese win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,273 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cremonese to win41.0%

Draw29.9%

Lecce to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cremonese lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time46.4%

Lecce lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Cremonese ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Lecce ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1273 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cremonese: at least 11Actual: 15
Lecce: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Cremonese: at least 4Actual: 5
Lecce: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cremonese score1.40

Attack: Cremonese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lecce's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lecce score0.96

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cremonese concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.6%0–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.