Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 14

Hellas Verona–Atalanta

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Hellas VeronaRafik Belghali (assist: D. Mosquera)
36'Hellas VeronaGiovane
71'Hellas VeronaA. Bernede (assist: Giovane)
81'AtalantaGianluca Scamacca (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		Atalanta
12	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
278	Passes	488
195	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 0.91 · Atalanta 1.56. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Hellas Verona 12 · Atalanta 12; on target 7 and 5.
Atalanta kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Maurizio Mariani, Italy→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.4%: “Atalanta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.88 for Hellas Verona, 1.77 for Atalanta.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (X2 — draw or Atalanta win).
These values were computed from 1,272 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win16.9%

Draw24.7%

Atalanta to win58.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Hellas Verona lead at half-time10.3%

Level at half-time38.0%

Atalanta lead at half-time51.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level48.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Atalanta ahead89.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1272 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 12Actual: 14
Atalanta: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 3Actual: 5
Atalanta: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score0.91

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atalanta score1.56

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%0–111.9%0–211.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.