Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 14

Sassuolo–Fiorentina

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'FiorentinaRolando Mandragora (penalty)
14'SassuoloC. Volpato (assist: T. Muharemović)
45'SassuoloT. Muharemović (assist: Armand Laurienté)
65'SassuoloI. Kone (assist: C. Volpato)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sassuolo		Fiorentina
13	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	4
40%	Possession	60%
324	Passes	498
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sassuolo 1.22 · Fiorentina 1.40. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Sassuolo 13 · Fiorentina 9; on target 5 and 1.
Fiorentina kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Luca Pairetto, Italy→

5.43

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.6%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “Sassuolo to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Sassuolo, 1.27 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,270 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sassuolo to win34.2%

Draw29.1%

Fiorentina to win36.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Sassuolo lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time45.7%

Fiorentina lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sassuolo ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Fiorentina ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1270 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sassuolo: at least 13Actual: 15
Fiorentina: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Sassuolo: at least 3Actual: 7
Fiorentina: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sassuolo score1.22

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.40

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–19.6%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.