Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 13

AC Milan–Lazio

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'AC MilanR. Leao (assist: F. Tomori)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Lazio
16	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
493	Passes	569
437	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.55 · Lazio 1.07. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AC Milan 16 · Lazio 9; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Giuseppe Collu, Italy→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.6%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for AC Milan, 0.83 for Lazio.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,264 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win57.6%

Draw25.5%

Lazio to win16.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AC Milan lead at half-time29.4%

Level at half-time47.2%

Lazio lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Lazio ahead70.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1264 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 11Actual: 10
Lazio: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

AC Milan: at least 4Actual: 1
Lazio: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.55

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Lazio's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lazio score1.07

Attack: Lazio score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.0%1–112.9%2–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.