Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 13

Juventus–Cagliari

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'CagliariS. Esposito (assist: M. Palestra)
27'JuventusK. Yildiz
45'JuventusK. Yildiz (assist: Pierre Kalulu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Juventus		Cagliari
14	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
610	Passes	454
560	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Juventus 1.71 · Cagliari 0.74. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Juventus 14 · Cagliari 5; on target 6 and 3.
Juventus kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Valerio Crezzini, Italy→

2.83

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.6%: “Juventus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.46 for Juventus, 0.62 for Cagliari.
The highest double chance value is 93.7% (1X — Juventus win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,263 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Juventus to win78.6%

Draw15.1%

Cagliari to win6.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Juventus lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time44.4%

Cagliari lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Juventus ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Cagliari ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1263 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Juventus: at least 12Actual: 16
Cagliari: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Juventus: at least 5Actual: 1
Cagliari: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Juventus score1.71

Attack: Juventus score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cagliari concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cagliari score0.74

Attack: Cagliari score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.3%3–011.8%1–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.