Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 13

Genoa–Hellas Verona

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Hellas VeronaRafik Belghali
40'GenoaLorenzo Colombo (assist: Vitinha)
62'GenoaMorten Thorsby (assist: Mikael Ellertsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Genoa		Hellas Verona
15	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
4	Offsides	5
60%	Possession	40%
455	Passes	299
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Genoa 1.36 · Hellas Verona 0.93. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Genoa 15 · Hellas Verona 13; on target 4 and 5.
Genoa kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Michael Fabbri, Italy→

4.20

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “Genoa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Genoa, 0.76 for Hellas Verona.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (1X — Genoa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,261 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Genoa to win47.7%

Draw31.1%

Hellas Verona to win21.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Genoa lead at half-time42.1%

Level at half-time43.6%

Hellas Verona lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Genoa ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Hellas Verona ahead57.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1261 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Genoa: at least 10Actual: 9
Hellas Verona: at least 15Actual: 19

Corners

Genoa: at least 4Actual: 2
Hellas Verona: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Genoa score1.36

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hellas Verona score0.93

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.3%1–114.7%0–013.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.