Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 12

Inter–AC Milan

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'AC MilanChristian Pulišić

Match statistics

Match statistics
Inter		AC Milan
20	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	1
2	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
624	Passes	361
563	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Inter 1.73 · AC Milan 1.08. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Inter 20 · AC Milan 7; on target 6 and 3.
Inter kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Simone Sozza, Italy→

3.50

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.4%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Inter, 1.02 for AC Milan.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Inter win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,257 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Inter to win47.4%

Draw28.0%

AC Milan to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Inter lead at half-time37.9%

Level at half-time43.2%

AC Milan lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Inter ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or AC Milan ahead62.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1257 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Inter: at least 11Actual: 7
AC Milan: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Inter: at least 5Actual: 9
AC Milan: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Inter score1.73

Attack: Inter score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AC Milan score1.08

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.08 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–011.4%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.