Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 12

Hellas Verona–Parma

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'ParmaMateo Pellegrino
65'Hellas VeronaGiovane (assist: D. Mosquera)
80'ParmaMateo Pellegrino

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		Parma
10	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
467	Passes	332
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 1.16 · Parma 1.12. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Hellas Verona 10 · Parma 15; on target 2 and 7.
Hellas Verona kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Luca Pairetto, Italy→

5.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.2%: “Hellas Verona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Hellas Verona, 0.96 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (1X — Hellas Verona win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,254 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win44.2%

Draw29.9%

Parma to win25.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

24	Fouls	6

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hellas Verona lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time47.5%

Parma lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Parma ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1254 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 14Actual: 24
Parma: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 4Actual: 4
Parma: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score1.16

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score1.12

Attack: Parma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.9%0–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.