Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 11

AS Roma–Udinese

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'AS RomaL. Pellegrini (penalty)
61'AS RomaZeki Çelik (assist: Gianluca Mancini)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Udinese
13	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
488	Passes	361
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.59 · Udinese 0.81. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots AS Roma 13 · Udinese 10; on target 4 and 4.
AS Roma kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Giuseppe Collu, Italy→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.0%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for AS Roma, 0.73 for Udinese.
The highest double chance value is 86.6% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,248 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win63.0%

Draw23.6%

Udinese to win13.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AS Roma lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time45.5%

Udinese lead at half-time18.0%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level82.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Udinese ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1248 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 10Actual: 13
Udinese: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

AS Roma: at least 6Actual: 3
Udinese: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.59

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Udinese score0.81

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.7%2–013.3%1–111.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.