Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 10

Parma–Bologna

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'ParmaA. Bernabe (assist: Adrian Benedyczak)
17'BolognaSantiago Castro (assist: Emil Holm)
35'ParmaChristian Ordoñez · red card
68'BolognaSantiago Castro
90'BolognaJuan Miranda (assist: Nicolò Cambiaghi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Parma		Bologna
7	Shots	22
1	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	16
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	5
1	Offsides	6
35%	Possession	65%
235	Passes	424
148	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Parma 1.01 · Bologna 1.30. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Parma 7 · Bologna 22; on target 1 and 6.
Bologna kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Kevin Bonacina, Italy→

4.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Bologna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.80 for Parma, 1.37 for Bologna.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (X2 — draw or Bologna win).
These values were computed from 1,236 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Parma to win20.6%

Draw29.5%

Bologna to win49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Parma lead at half-time19.5%

Level at half-time50.0%

Bologna lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Parma ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time50.0%

X2 — level or Bologna ahead80.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1236 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Parma: at least 12Actual: 16
Bologna: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Parma: at least 3Actual: 1
Bologna: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Parma score1.01

Attack: Parma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bologna's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bologna score1.30

Attack: Bologna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.1%1–114.4%0–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.