Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 9

AS Roma–Parma

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 October 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'AS RomaMario Hermoso (assist: Paulo Dybala)
81'AS RomaA. Dovbyk
86'ParmaAlessandro Circati (assist: Adrian Benedyczak)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Parma
18	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
519	Passes	348
439	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 1.55 · Parma 0.77. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AS Roma 18 · Parma 8; on target 6 and 5.
AS Roma kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Valerio Crezzini, Italy→

2.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.3%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for AS Roma, 0.65 for Parma.
The highest double chance value is 88.8% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,222 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win66.3%

Draw22.5%

Parma to win11.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AS Roma lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time47.2%

Parma lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Roma ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Parma ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1222 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Roma: at least 11Actual: 8
Parma: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

AS Roma: at least 5Actual: 9
Parma: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score1.55

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Parma's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Parma score0.77

Attack: Parma score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.7%2–014.5%1–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.