Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 8

Fiorentina–Bologna

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'BolognaSantiago Castro
52'BolognaNicolò Cambiaghi (assist: Emil Holm)
74'FiorentinaAlbert Guðmundsson (penalty)
83'BolognaEmil Holm · red card
90'FiorentinaM. Kean (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fiorentina		Bologna
19	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	6
5	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
326	Passes	330
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fiorentina 1.18 · Bologna 1.29. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Fiorentina 19 · Bologna 6; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

Federico La Penna, Italy→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.8%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “Bologna to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Fiorentina, 1.09 for Bologna.
The highest double chance value is 68.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,218 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fiorentina to win34.8%

Draw31.2%

Bologna to win34.0%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Fiorentina lead at half-time33.5%

Level at half-time44.9%

Bologna lead at half-time21.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Fiorentina ahead or level78.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Bologna ahead66.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1218 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fiorentina: at least 13Actual: 13
Bologna: at least 14Actual: 20

Corners

Fiorentina: at least 3Actual: 5
Bologna: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fiorentina score1.18

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bologna concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bologna score1.29

Attack: Bologna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–011.4%0–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.