Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 8

Torino–Genoa

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'GenoaMorten Thorsby
63'TorinoStefano Sabelli (own goal)
90'TorinoG. Maripan (assist: V. Lazaro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Torino		Genoa
13	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
484	Passes	344
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Torino 1.14 · Genoa 1.07. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Torino 13 · Genoa 11; on target 6 and 3.
Torino kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Kevin Bonacina, Italy→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.8%: “Torino to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Torino, 0.95 for Genoa.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (1X — Torino win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Torino to win38.8%

Draw31.9%

Genoa to win29.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Torino lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time49.9%

Genoa lead at half-time25.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Torino ahead or level74.1%

12 — not level at half-time50.1%

X2 — level or Genoa ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Torino: at least 12Actual: 14
Genoa: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Torino: at least 5Actual: 9
Genoa: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Torino score1.14

Attack: Torino score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genoa score1.07

Attack: Genoa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–013.4%0–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.