Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 8

Napoli–Inter

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'NapoliKevin De Bruyne (penalty)
54'NapoliS. McTominay (assist: Leonardo Spinazzola)
59'InterH. Calhanoglu (penalty)
67'NapoliF. Anguissa (assist: David Neres)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Inter
7	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
419	Passes	536
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 1.30 · Inter 1.30. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Napoli 7 · Inter 15; on target 3 and 3.
Inter kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Maurizio Mariani, Italy→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Napoli, 1.47 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (X2 — draw or Inter win).
These values were computed from 1,213 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win27.7%

Draw27.9%

Inter to win44.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Napoli lead at half-time19.6%

Level at half-time43.2%

Inter lead at half-time37.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Napoli ahead or level62.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Inter ahead80.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1213 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napoli: at least 9Actual: 15
Inter: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Napoli: at least 4Actual: 1
Inter: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score1.30

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Inter score1.30

Attack: Inter score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.30 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–110.0%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.