Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 7

Cremonese–Udinese

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 20 October 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'CremoneseFilippo Terracciano (assist: J. Vandeputte)
51'UdineseN. Zaniolo (assist: A. Zanoli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cremonese		Udinese
11	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
367	Passes	340
283	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cremonese 1.16 · Udinese 1.24. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Cremonese 11 · Udinese 8; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

Michael Fabbri, Italy→

3.67

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “Udinese to win”. Second comes “Cremonese to win” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Cremonese, 1.28 for Udinese.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,209 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cremonese to win30.2%

Draw29.8%

Udinese to win40.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cremonese lead at half-time28.3%

Level at half-time45.7%

Udinese lead at half-time25.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Cremonese ahead or level74.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Udinese ahead71.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1209 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cremonese: at least 10Actual: 15
Udinese: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Cremonese: at least 3Actual: 5
Udinese: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cremonese score1.16

Attack: Cremonese score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Udinese score1.24

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–111.2%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.