Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 7

AC Milan–Fiorentina

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'FiorentinaR. Gosens
63'AC MilanR. Leao (assist: Strahinja Pavlović)
86'AC MilanR. Leao (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Fiorentina
14	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
485	Passes	362
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 1.68 · Fiorentina 1.01. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AC Milan 14 · Fiorentina 5; on target 4 and 1.
AC Milan kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Livio Marinelli, Italy→

3.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.0%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for AC Milan, 0.84 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win57.0%

Draw25.7%

Fiorentina to win17.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AC Milan lead at half-time33.4%

Level at half-time44.4%

Fiorentina lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Fiorentina ahead66.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 12Actual: 14
Fiorentina: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

AC Milan: at least 4Actual: 1
Fiorentina: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score1.68

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.01

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–013.0%2–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.