Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 7

Como–Juventus

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'ComoMarc Kempf (assist: Nico Paz)
79'ComoNico Paz (assist: Máximo Perrone)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Como		Juventus
12	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
361	Passes	447
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Como 1.09 · Juventus 1.21. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Como 12 · Juventus 15; on target 6 and 3.
Juventus kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Giovanni Ayroldi, Italy→

5.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “Juventus to win”. Second comes “Como to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Como, 1.36 for Juventus.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,204 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Como to win30.0%

Draw28.8%

Juventus to win41.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Como lead at half-time29.1%

Level at half-time46.7%

Juventus lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Como ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Juventus ahead70.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1204 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Como: at least 11Actual: 12
Juventus: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Como: at least 4Actual: 4
Juventus: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Como score1.09

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Juventus score1.21

Attack: Juventus score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Como's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–110.3%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.