Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 7

Torino–Napoli

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'TorinoGiovanni Simeone

Match statistics

Match statistics
Torino		Napoli
12	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	11
2	Offsides	2
31%	Possession	69%
281	Passes	615
214	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Torino 0.85 · Napoli 1.51. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Torino 12 · Napoli 22; on target 2 and 5.
Napoli kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Matteo Marcenaro, Italy→

3.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.4%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.81 for Torino, 1.50 for Napoli.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (X2 — draw or Napoli win).
These values were computed from 1,202 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Torino to win18.8%

Draw27.8%

Napoli to win53.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Torino lead at half-time13.2%

Level at half-time43.8%

Napoli lead at half-time43.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Torino ahead or level57.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Napoli ahead86.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1202 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Torino: at least 12Actual: 9
Napoli: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Torino: at least 4Actual: 3
Napoli: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Torino score0.85

Attack: Torino score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napoli score1.51

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Torino's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.4%1–113.8%0–211.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.