Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 6

Napoli–Genoa

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'GenoaJ. Ekhator (assist: B. Norton-Cuffy)
57'NapoliF. Anguissa
75'NapoliRasmus Højlund

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Genoa
12	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
69%	Possession	31%
554	Passes	245
462	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 1.66 · Genoa 0.75. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Napoli 12 · Genoa 6; on target 5 and 1.
Napoli kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Federico La Penna, Italy→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.8%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Napoli, 0.60 for Genoa.
The highest double chance value is 89.1% (1X — Napoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,198 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win65.8%

Draw23.3%

Genoa to win10.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Napoli lead at half-time42.4%

Level at half-time44.8%

Genoa lead at half-time12.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Napoli ahead or level87.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Genoa ahead57.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1198 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napoli: at least 10Actual: 16
Genoa: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Napoli: at least 6Actual: 7
Genoa: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score1.66

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Genoa's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genoa score0.75

Attack: Genoa score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.1%2–015.2%1–111.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.