Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 6

Atalanta–Como

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'AtalantaLazar Samardžić
19'ComoMáximo Perrone

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atalanta		Como
16	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
457	Passes	460
391	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atalanta 1.69 · Como 0.97. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Atalanta 16 · Como 12; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Luca Zufferli, Italy→

2.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Atalanta to win”. Second comes “Como to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Atalanta, 1.23 for Como.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,194 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atalanta to win44.5%

Draw26.9%

Como to win28.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Atalanta win or draw71.4%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Como win55.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Atalanta lead at half-time37.9%

Level at half-time44.1%

Como lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Atalanta ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Como ahead62.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1194 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atalanta: at least 12Actual: 10
Como: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Atalanta: at least 4Actual: 8
Como: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atalanta score1.69

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Como's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Como score0.97

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.1%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1194 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 43 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.