Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 6

Inter–Cremonese

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'InterLautaro Martínez (assist: Ange-Yoan Bonny)
38'InterAnge-Yoan Bonny (assist: F. Dimarco)
55'InterF. Dimarco (assist: Ange-Yoan Bonny)
57'InterNicolò Barella (assist: Ange-Yoan Bonny)
87'CremoneseF. Bonazzoli (assist: J. Vandeputte)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Inter		Cremonese
27	Shots	3
9	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
13	Corners	1
4	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
595	Passes	316
525	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Inter 2.01 · Cremonese 0.68. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Inter 27 · Cremonese 3; on target 9 and 2.
Inter kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Ermanno Feliciani, Italy→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.5%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.60 for Inter, 0.54 for Cremonese.
The highest double chance value is 95.4% (1X — Inter win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,193 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Inter to win82.5%

Draw12.9%

Cremonese to win4.6%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Inter lead at half-time49.6%

Level at half-time39.7%

Cremonese lead at half-time10.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Inter ahead or level89.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Cremonese ahead50.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1193 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Inter: at least 11Actual: 9
Cremonese: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Inter: at least 7Actual: 13
Cremonese: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Inter score2.01

Attack: Inter score 50% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cremonese score0.68

Attack: Cremonese score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.1%3–013.2%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.