Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 6

Hellas Verona–Sassuolo

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 3 October 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

71'SassuoloA. Pinamonti

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hellas Verona		Sassuolo
17	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	9
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
438	Passes	315
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hellas Verona 1.29 · Sassuolo 1.22. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hellas Verona 17 · Sassuolo 11; on target 9 and 3.
Hellas Verona kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Francesco Fourneau, Italy→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Hellas Verona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Hellas Verona, 1.06 for Sassuolo.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (1X — Hellas Verona win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,190 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hellas Verona to win40.9%

Draw29.8%

Sassuolo to win29.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hellas Verona lead at half-time15.6%

Level at half-time42.2%

Sassuolo lead at half-time42.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hellas Verona ahead or level57.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Sassuolo ahead84.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1190 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hellas Verona: at least 15Actual: 14
Sassuolo: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Hellas Verona: at least 4Actual: 4
Sassuolo: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hellas Verona score1.29

Attack: Hellas Verona score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sassuolo concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sassuolo score1.22

Attack: Sassuolo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hellas Verona's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.5%0–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.