Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 5

Como–Cremonese

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'ComoNico Paz (assist: Jesús Rodriguez)
69'CremoneseF. Baschirotto (assist: F. Vazquez)
82'ComoJesús Rodriguez · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Como		Cremonese
14	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	4
58%	Possession	42%
451	Passes	316
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Como 1.50 · Cremonese 0.91. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Como 14 · Cremonese 9; on target 6 and 2.
Como kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Marco Di Bello, Italy→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.1%: “Como to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Como, 0.73 for Cremonese.
The highest double chance value is 88.9% (1X — Como win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,180 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Como to win68.1%

Draw20.8%

Cremonese to win11.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Como lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time48.1%

Cremonese lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Como ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time51.9%

X2 — level or Cremonese ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1180 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Como: at least 12Actual: 16
Cremonese: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Como: at least 6Actual: 4
Cremonese: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Como score1.50

Attack: Como score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cremonese's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cremonese score0.91

Attack: Cremonese score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Como's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.5%1–012.2%1–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.