Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 3

Atalanta–Lecce

4–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'AtalantaGiorgio Scalvini (assist: Nicola Zalewski)
51'AtalantaCharles De Ketelaere (assist: Nikola Krstović)
70'AtalantaNicola Zalewski (assist: Nikola Krstović)
73'AtalantaCharles De Ketelaere
82'LecceN'Dri Konan (assist: Danilo Veiga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atalanta		Lecce
19	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
456	Passes	357
390	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atalanta 2.02 · Lecce 0.66. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Atalanta 19 · Lecce 12; on target 8 and 3.
Atalanta kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Gianluca Manganiello, Italy→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.9%: “Atalanta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for Atalanta, 0.72 for Lecce.
The highest double chance value is 89.8% (1X — Atalanta win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,164 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atalanta to win69.9%

Draw19.9%

Lecce to win10.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Atalanta lead at half-time50.2%

Level at half-time40.4%

Lecce lead at half-time9.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Atalanta ahead or level90.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Lecce ahead49.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1164 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atalanta: at least 10Actual: 12
Lecce: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Atalanta: at least 6Actual: 8
Lecce: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atalanta score2.02

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Lecce's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lecce score0.66

Attack: Lecce score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.7%1–012.0%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.