Premier League · England · Regular Season - 38

Nottingham Forest–Bournemouth

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: City Ground, Nottingham

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Nottingham ForestM. Gibbs-White (assist: Omari Hutchinson)
54'BournemouthM. Tavernier (assist: A. Truffert)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nottingham Forest		Bournemouth
15	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
396	Passes	485
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nottingham Forest 1.42 · Bournemouth 1.45. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Nottingham Forest 15 · Bournemouth 17; on target 5 and 4.
Bournemouth kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

C. Pawson→

4.09

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

106

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.6%: “Bournemouth to win”. Second comes “Nottingham Forest to win” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Nottingham Forest, 1.77 for Bournemouth.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nottingham Forest to win26.2%

Draw25.2%

Bournemouth to win48.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Nottingham Forest lead at half-time31.4%

Level at half-time43.1%

Bournemouth lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Nottingham Forest ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Bournemouth ahead68.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nottingham Forest: at least 9Actual: 11
Bournemouth: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Nottingham Forest: at least 5Actual: 6
Bournemouth: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.42

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bournemouth's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bournemouth score1.45

Attack: Bournemouth score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.5%0–17.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.