Premier League · England · Regular Season - 38

Crystal Palace–Arsenal

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Selhurst Park, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'ArsenalGabriel Jesus (assist: G. Martinelli)
48'ArsenalN. Madueke (assist: K. Havertz)
89'Crystal PalaceJ. Mateta (assist: Yeremy Pino)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Crystal Palace		Arsenal
8	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
40%	Possession	60%
328	Passes	518
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Crystal Palace 1.00 · Arsenal 1.53. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Crystal Palace 8 · Arsenal 17; on target 3 and 7.
Arsenal kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

F. Hallam→

3.70

yellows per match

0.03

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Crystal Palace, 1.74 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (X2 — draw or Arsenal win).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Crystal Palace to win23.3%

Draw25.4%

Arsenal to win51.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Crystal Palace lead at half-time15.1%

Level at half-time41.5%

Arsenal lead at half-time43.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Crystal Palace ahead or level56.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Arsenal ahead84.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Crystal Palace: at least 10Actual: 9
Arsenal: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Crystal Palace: at least 3Actual: 3
Arsenal: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.00

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arsenal score1.53

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–210.7%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.