Premier League · England · Regular Season - 38

West Ham–Leeds

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: London Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

67'West HamT. Castellanos (assist: J. Bowen)
79'West HamJ. Bowen (assist: Mateus Fernandes)
90'West HamC. Wilson (assist: C. Summerville)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Ham		Leeds
16	Shots	13
9	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
316	Passes	453
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Ham 1.36 · Leeds 1.42. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots West Ham 16 · Leeds 13; on target 9 and 3.
Leeds kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Taylor→

3.99

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

148

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.9%: “West Ham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for West Ham, 1.15 for Leeds.
The highest double chance value is 79.3% (1X — West Ham win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Ham to win55.9%

Draw23.5%

Leeds to win20.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — West Ham win or draw79.3%

12 — any result other than a draw76.5%

X2 — draw or Leeds win44.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

West Ham lead at half-time21.8%

Level at half-time44.4%

Leeds lead at half-time33.8%

First-half double chance

1X — West Ham ahead or level66.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Leeds ahead78.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Ham: at least 10Actual: 11
Leeds: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

West Ham: at least 5Actual: 6
Leeds: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Ham score1.36

Attack: West Ham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leeds's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leeds score1.42

Attack: Leeds score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Ham's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–110.9%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1510 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 75 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.