Premier League · England · Regular Season - 38

Burnley–Wolves

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'WolvesA. Armstrong (penalty)
47'BurnleyZ. Flemming (assist: L. Tchaouna)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burnley		Wolves
16	Shots	16
8	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	7
0	Offsides	3
70%	Possession	30%
569	Passes	225
498	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burnley 1.30 · Wolves 1.23. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Burnley 16 · Wolves 16; on target 8 and 4.
Burnley kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

A. Kitchen→

3.09

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Burnley to win”. Second comes “Wolves to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Burnley, 1.36 for Wolves.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burnley to win39.6%

Draw27.0%

Wolves to win33.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Burnley lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time41.4%

Wolves lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Burnley ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Wolves ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burnley: at least 10Actual: 10
Wolves: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Burnley: at least 4Actual: 7
Wolves: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burnley score1.30

Attack: Burnley score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Wolves's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wolves score1.23

Attack: Wolves score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Burnley concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.