Premier League · England · Regular Season - 38

Liverpool–Brentford

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Anfield, Liverpool

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'LiverpoolCurtis Jones (assist: Mohamed Salah)
64'BrentfordK. Schade

Match statistics

Match statistics
Liverpool		Brentford
24	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
14	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
508	Passes	333
438	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Liverpool 1.83 · Brentford 1.20. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Liverpool 24 · Brentford 11; on target 8 and 2.
Liverpool kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

D. England→

4.45

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.1%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “Brentford to win” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for Liverpool, 1.37 for Brentford.
The highest double chance value is 77.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Liverpool to win54.1%

Draw22.6%

Brentford to win23.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Liverpool win or draw76.6%

12 — any result other than a draw77.4%

X2 — draw or Brentford win45.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Liverpool lead at half-time42.7%

Level at half-time39.9%

Brentford lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Liverpool ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Brentford ahead57.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Liverpool: at least 9Actual: 9
Brentford: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Liverpool: at least 6Actual: 14
Brentford: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Liverpool score1.83

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Brentford's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brentford score1.20

Attack: Brentford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.4%1–110.0%3–17.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1510 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 151 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.