Premier League · England · Regular Season - 38

Fulham–Newcastle

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Craven Cottage, London

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'FulhamI. Diop
80'FulhamT. Cairney (assist: H. Wilson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fulham		Newcastle
21	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
418	Passes	508
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fulham 1.38 · Newcastle 1.44. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Fulham 21 · Newcastle 7; on target 6 and 2.
Newcastle kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Jones→

4.37

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

109

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Newcastle to win”. Second comes “Fulham to win” at 37.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Fulham, 1.64 for Newcastle.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fulham to win37.4%

Draw25.1%

Newcastle to win37.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Fulham win or draw62.5%

12 — any result other than a draw74.9%

X2 — draw or Newcastle win62.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fulham lead at half-time22.5%

Level at half-time42.0%

Newcastle lead at half-time35.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Fulham ahead or level64.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Newcastle ahead77.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fulham: at least 11Actual: 13
Newcastle: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Fulham: at least 4Actual: 6
Newcastle: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fulham score1.38

Attack: Fulham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Newcastle's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Newcastle score1.44

Attack: Newcastle score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Fulham's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–29.1%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1510 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 151 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.