Premier League · England · Regular Season - 37

Leeds–Brighton

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'LeedsD. Calvert-Lewin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leeds		Brighton
7	Shots	19
1	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	15
7	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	8
3	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
280	Passes	556
188	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leeds 1.49 · Brighton 1.31. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Leeds 7 · Brighton 19; on target 1 and 8.
Brighton kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

M. Oliver→

3.88

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

144

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.2%: “Brighton to win”. Second comes “Leeds to win” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Leeds, 1.58 for Brighton.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leeds to win26.9%

Draw26.9%

Brighton to win46.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Leeds lead at half-time43.2%

Level at half-time41.4%

Brighton lead at half-time15.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Leeds ahead or level84.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Brighton ahead56.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1502 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leeds: at least 9Actual: 9
Brighton: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Leeds: at least 4Actual: 7
Brighton: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leeds score1.49

Attack: Leeds score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brighton score1.31

Attack: Brighton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leeds's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–210.3%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.