Premier League · England · Regular Season - 37

Brentford–Crystal Palace

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Crystal PalaceI. Sarr (penalty)
40'BrentfordD. Ouattara
52'Crystal PalaceA. Wharton (assist: D. Muñoz)
88'BrentfordD. Ouattara (assist: S. van den Berg)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brentford		Crystal Palace
14	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
9	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
467	Passes	344
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brentford 1.62 · Crystal Palace 1.23. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Brentford 14 · Crystal Palace 16; on target 3 and 5.
Brentford kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Barrott→

3.70

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “Brentford to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Brentford, 1.09 for Crystal Palace.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (1X — Brentford win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brentford to win55.2%

Draw24.2%

Crystal Palace to win20.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Brentford lead at half-time43.3%

Level at half-time40.0%

Crystal Palace lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Brentford ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Crystal Palace ahead56.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1502 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brentford: at least 9Actual: 7
Crystal Palace: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

Brentford: at least 4Actual: 9
Crystal Palace: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brentford score1.62

Attack: Brentford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.23

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brentford's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.9%2–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.