Premier League · England · Regular Season - 37

Everton–Sunderland

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'EvertonM. Rohl (assist: M. Keane)
59'SunderlandBrian Brobbey (assist: Enzo Le Fée)
81'SunderlandEnzo Le Fée (assist: Chris Rigg)
90'SunderlandWilson Isidor (assist: H. Diarra)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Everton		Sunderland
10	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
407	Passes	451
346	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Everton 1.50 · Sunderland 1.04. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Everton 10 · Sunderland 7; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

J. Brooks→

4.51

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.7%: “Everton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Everton, 1.04 for Sunderland.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — Everton win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Everton to win51.7%

Draw26.1%

Sunderland to win22.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Everton lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time43.9%

Sunderland lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Everton ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Sunderland ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1502 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Everton: at least 10Actual: 14
Sunderland: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Everton: at least 4Actual: 3
Sunderland: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Everton score1.50

Attack: Everton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sunderland's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sunderland score1.04

Attack: Sunderland score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Everton's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.