Premier League · England · Regular Season - 37

Manchester United–Nottingham Forest

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Manchester UnitedL. Shaw
53'Nottingham ForestMorato (assist: E. Anderson)
55'Manchester UnitedMatheus Cunha
76'Manchester UnitedB. Mbeumo (assist: Bruno Fernandes)
78'Nottingham ForestM. Gibbs-White (assist: E. Anderson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester United		Nottingham Forest
29	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	4
21	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
438	Passes	472
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester United 1.67 · Nottingham Forest 1.09. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Manchester United 29 · Nottingham Forest 11; on target 8 and 4.

Referee

M. Salisbury→

3.77

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.0%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for Manchester United, 1.10 for Nottingham Forest.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — Manchester United win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,501 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester United to win61.0%

Draw21.6%

Nottingham Forest to win17.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Manchester United lead at half-time37.9%

Level at half-time42.7%

Nottingham Forest lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester United ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Nottingham Forest ahead62.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1501 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester United: at least 10Actual: 11
Nottingham Forest: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Manchester United: at least 5Actual: 7
Nottingham Forest: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester United score1.67

Attack: Manchester United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.09

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.4%2–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.