Premier League · England · Regular Season - 37

Aston Villa–Liverpool

4–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 15 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'Aston VillaM. Rogers (assist: L. Digne)
52'LiverpoolV. van Dijk (assist: D. Szoboszlai)
57'Aston VillaO. Watkins (assist: M. Rogers)
73'Aston VillaO. Watkins
89'Aston VillaJ. McGinn (assist: O. Watkins)
90'LiverpoolV. van Dijk (assist: D. Szoboszlai)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aston Villa		Liverpool
14	Shots	16
9	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	9
2	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
360	Passes	430
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aston Villa 1.32 · Liverpool 1.53. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Aston Villa 14 · Liverpool 16; on target 9 and 5.
Liverpool kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

C. Kavanagh→

4.00

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

107

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “Aston Villa to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Aston Villa, 1.41 for Liverpool.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,500 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aston Villa to win34.9%

Draw27.5%

Liverpool to win37.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Aston Villa lead at half-time24.3%

Level at half-time42.4%

Liverpool lead at half-time33.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Aston Villa ahead or level66.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Liverpool ahead75.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1500 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aston Villa: at least 9Actual: 12
Liverpool: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Aston Villa: at least 4Actual: 4
Liverpool: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aston Villa score1.32

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Liverpool score1.53

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–29.3%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.