Premier League · England · Regular Season - 31

Manchester City–Crystal Palace

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Manchester CityA. Semenyo (assist: P. Foden)
40'Manchester CityOmar Marmoush (assist: P. Foden)
84'Manchester CitySavinho (assist: R. Cherki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester City		Crystal Palace
15	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
9	Corners	4
0	Offsides	4
73%	Possession	27%
743	Passes	281
662	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester City 1.98 · Crystal Palace 0.96. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Manchester City 15 · Crystal Palace 6; on target 4 and 2.
Manchester City kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

S. Attwell→

4.12

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.4%: “Manchester City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.51 for Manchester City, 0.89 for Crystal Palace.
The highest double chance value is 90.2% (1X — Manchester City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,499 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester City to win73.4%

Draw16.8%

Crystal Palace to win9.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Manchester City lead at half-time64.0%

Level at half-time31.5%

Crystal Palace lead at half-time4.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester City ahead or level95.5%

12 — not level at half-time68.5%

X2 — level or Crystal Palace ahead36.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1499 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester City: at least 8Actual: 10
Crystal Palace: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Manchester City: at least 6Actual: 9
Crystal Palace: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester City score1.98

Attack: Manchester City score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Crystal Palace score0.96

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester City concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.8%2–110.3%3–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.